Thickly Sliced Chicken Garbage

A Little Bit of Everything

2009-11-11T17:06:00.000-05:00

NHL (Flat Bet @ 2x)
Carolina +146
Islanders +188

NCAAB (Risk/Win 2x) <--- If +101 or higher, risking 2x, else to win 2x
Detroit +18
UNC -46
Robert Morris +17.5

NCAAF (Flat Bet @ 4x)
Toledo +17

NBA (Risk/Win 4x)
Knicks +5.5
Charlotte +4.5
Bucks +3.5
Hornets +6.5
Minny +8

Things that will end well: This card.

Fuck.

Updated Google Sheet

2009-11-10T18:07:00.001-05:00

Dropped my October plays in to the google spreadsheet. Among the highlights is dropping 4k on Minnesota vs Pitt early in the week at a bad number, thinking the line would drop, then crying as I couldn't hedge without a decent middle catastrophe shot... They then lost by 10 points so it didn't matter, except that I lost. That sucked.

I get good lines

2009-11-10T18:05:00.000-05:00

There are much better numbers available now.

NBA Plays (4x)

Charlotte 3.5 -104
Washington 6.5 +117
Chicago 2.5 +100
Memphis 5.5 -102
Sacramento 1.5 +108

NHL Plays (2x)

Boston -126
Montreal +119
St. Louis -115
Nashville +244

Holy Shit

2009-11-08T03:14:00.000-05:00

Day 2 of the revival

2009-11-06T18:15:00.000-05:00

Hooray for yesterday. Now there are about 30 NBA games today. Next Friday is 195 NCAAB games. Which will absolutely be awesome.

NHL 2x each:

Chicago
NYI
Buf
Tor
Florida

NBA 4x each:

Charlotte +2.5/+2
Knicks +8.5/+8
Miami -1
Memphis +10

NCAAF:

LT +20.5 6x
U51.5 3x

Back on the Blogging Train

2009-11-05T17:32:00.000-05:00

Alright, here goes:

Hockey Plays (2x)
Phoenix
Montreal
Edmonton (3x)
LA Kings
Minnesota
Tampa Bay

NBA Plays (4x)
Utah +1

Fade for great justice. Go Jazz.

guess where all the money went!! october sucks a fat one

2009-11-05T10:39:00.001-05:00

I was trying to look for a clip from Tiny Toon adventures where Plucky was potty training, and he just started throwing things down the toilet, flushing, and saying "__ go down the hoooole"... See, because that's where my money went, down the hole... Funding people on matchbook who believe in locks, guarantees, teams that will "crush" other teams, and so forth. Here is what the chart looks like:

As you can see, things were pretty awesome, then everybody died. Obviously this was all NFL, in which I have lost over 100x so far this year. There's really nothing I can do about it, nor is there anything I would have done differently. Obviously, two Sundays ago was "the worst day in Vegas ever ever ever", and I followed suit by having my worst day ever. Again, I think that's sort of the point, the plan of attack is to play at or even slightly below 50%, grind out a profit at a 1-2% ROI based on Matchbook's awesome negative-vig system.

There are going to be days like this.

That being said, everything else is doing very well. Hockey hasn't turned a profit yet, but then again, it's 38 games at 1 or 2 units per, so who cares, anyway. Baseball was very profitable near the end of the season, and most of our series bets won, and I was able to put money on the Yankees @ -180 last night without hating myself, so that was nice.

Here's what October looks like in chart form:

Same standard ~250k wagered, not as pretty results. If you're reading this blog, you know how college football went, with Juice, Paulus, some terrible backdoors against us, whatever.

Hopefully this means I'm back to posting, sorry for being such a queer for losing 20 grand in a one week period.

Now you may legally bet on hockey

2009-10-14T12:45:00.001-04:00

Not really "legally", whatever. But last night marked the beginning of the "holy shit there's nothing else on but I need to bet.. fuck... hockey?? Okay then" period. This will last until early November, when people have daily NCAA and NBA games. But last night had games with 12-15k bets on each of the few games, which is similar to the amount on a typical (if not high-volume) regular season baseball game.

Carolina (2)
Tulsa (6)
Tulsa Under (3)

11:25 PM EST - Edited with my final information. Nobody follows this so whatever.

Sidebar updated.

If anyone wants to employ a professional gambler/degenerate, let me know. I know excel and I make a mean carrot cake.

Why I'm On The Yankees

2009-10-09T14:39:00.000-04:00

1) Because I hate myself.
2) Because I'm craving sweet, sweet action.
3) The numbers say that it's a "contrarian" play. It's anywhere from 62 to 67% on the Yankees tonight. This doesn't include people throwing them in parlays and whatnot... I'm hoping that there's value based upon a bullshit notion of the uncanny valley:

Where people will see a big favorite (-170) and think they're a lock, not bet either side on a +/-220, then once it gets to ridiculous territory like we're at tonight, skew towards throwing some money on a +300.

I'm most likely wrong, but here we are. I have acheived... action.

New York Yankees, the most decorated sports franchise in human history since forever. 3 of your golden units.

Google Spreadsheet

2009-10-09T11:16:00.001-04:00

HERE

Just for the hell of it.

Words to Live By

2009-10-08T14:18:00.002-04:00

"On a related note, I can't stress enough how important Matchbook is to destroying the high vigorish and high profits of off-shores. It really is a libertarian's wet dream - a vibrant market with contracts that are ruthlessly enforced - while paying suppliers of the market a fee. How awesome is that???"

-Gamblor

College PVD Review

2009-10-04T18:04:00.000-04:00

Anything to get my mind off of all of this professional crap, I'd like to look at my guesses for the NCAAF games yesterday:

6 unit FML play
Illinois    $5,661,905 - $6.06m

5x Plays:
Duke    $4,568,571 - $4.16m
Kentucky $4,529,524 - $4.30m
Syracuse $4,381,143 - $4.03m
New Mexico $4,373,333 - $1.12m
UTEP $4,685,714 - $4.86m
Rice    $4,115,619 - $3.74m

4x Play:
Michigan State $3,748,571 - $4.47m
Notre Dame $3,041,810 - $2.62m

3x Plays:
Maryland $2,577,143 - $2.2m
Virginia $2,454,143 - $1.91m
Miami Ohio $2,050,000 - $1.53m
Buffalo U    $2,928,571 - $1.97m
UNLV    $2,499,048 - $1.92m
Florida Intl $2,460,000 - $708k
Boston College $2,050,000 - $1.87m
Ball State - $1.52m

Missed Plays:
California - $3.2m

All in all I'm pretty happy with how I did. FIU clearly shouldn't have been a play, but outside of vastly over-estimating the number of wagers on the UNM game, there's nothing that was that out of whack.

How it went down (real vs. theoretical)

6x Plays:
(0-1) (real) vs. (0-1) (theoretical)

5x Plays:
(3-2-1) vs. (3-2)

4x Plays:

(1-1) vs. (0-1-1)

3x Plays:

(5-3) vs. (1-1)

I hate the NFL in advance

2009-10-04T11:37:00.000-04:00

6x plays:
Cle +6.5
Den ML
Stl +9.5
Jax +3

3x plays:
U45.5 NYJ/NO
O36.5 TB/WAS
Oak +9
Sea +10

Available funds are like 30,200, so at least I'll still be positive after today!

Welcome to Hockeytown!

2009-10-03T17:46:00.000-04:00

Something pretty amazing about hockey is the huge disparity in the number of wagers between Game A and Game B. As of right now (5:45pm EST), and using the SI live update thanks to a free PremiumPro trial:

Ottawa @ NYR: 453 wagers
Philly @ NJ: 6100 wagers

Speak of the devil, here's the first NHL play of the year, as Juice loses me money:

Devils 1.5x

Final Few Plays

2009-10-03T15:56:00.000-04:00

5 unit plays

UTEP $4,685,714
Rice $4,115,619

NCAAF Week 5 Round 2 Seat 6

2009-10-03T13:27:00.002-04:00

6 unit FML play
Illinois $5,661,905

4 unit play
Notre Dame $3,041,810

3 unit plays
Buffalo U $2,928,571
UNLV $2,499,048
Florida Intl $2,460,000
Boston College $2,050,000

I'm scared.

2009-10-02T11:21:00.003-04:00

7 in a row now. I don't believe in jinxes, fairies, or Jesus, but I do believe that I'm right fucked this weekend.

I have to figure out a way to bet on hockey. Most likely, it'll involve 1 unit plays. There's just not enough volume for me to do anything else with it.

Here are picks for NCAAF games up until 3pm EST. Wedding tonight, no way I'm doing that thick goodness tomorrow morning (there's a joke in there, somewhere..).

5x Plays:

1 Duke $4,568,571
2 Kentucky $4,529,524
3 Syracuse $4,381,143
4 New Mexico $4,373,333

4x Play:
5 Michigan State $3,748,571

3x Plays:
6 Maryland $2,577,143
7 Virginia $2,454,143
8 Miami Ohio $2,050,000
9 Ball State

Had to edit this because goddamn SI had a different time for a bunch of games, so the funness of Duke was overlooked. Thanks am19psu for the heads up.

Hockey is a Cruel Teasing Mistress

2009-10-01T17:38:00.000-04:00

I put NHL in the sidebar, thinking I'd have a play tonight. As of 5:30 EST, the most popular hockey game has around 2400 bets. For comparison's sake, the UAB game has 13,000 bets. SEGUE!

UAB +9.5 4x

No MLB or NHL game qualifies. Maybe tomorrow I'll see that there's actual action on puck plays, or maybe I start betting half a unit just to appease my inner degen.

Rehearsal dinners are fucking stupid.

September - A Year in Pictures

2009-10-01T10:12:00.000-04:00

“We won yesterday. If we win today, that’s two-in-a-row. If we win tomorrow, that’s called a winning streak; it has happened before “.

Riding a 6-0 streak into October is never a bad thing, unless you pussied out, reduced your average wager size, and cost yourself a few hundred (thousand?) yen. Nevertheless, I'll of course take it.

Looking at last night's projected numbers, I was pretty spot on with regards to San Diego, or at least enough that a 2 unit play would have still been a 2 unit play if I knew the true numbers (Actual: $1.3m, Projected $1.1m). Surprisingly, the betting slowed down on the Red Sox game, with the VD ending up at around $505k, not nearly enough for a play. Luckbox strikes again.

------------

Looking at the month-end results, I have to be pretty happy here:

With the obvious, glaring exception of the goddamn National Football League. Maybe it's my own fault for making most of the plays 6 unit jobs, especially now that I've heard from multiple sources that the first few weeks are usually a shitshow.

I doubt that both the good results (3.1% ROI = Unsustainable) and the bad NFL results will be with me in the long-term, but I can certainly dream.

Wedding (not mine, thank god) stuff today and tomorrow, so hopefully I can get in some plays later before I leave for the rehearsal dinner, and then at the bar, people can ask me why I care so much about a little school out of Birmingham, Alabama.

Slow

2009-09-30T18:10:00.000-04:00

No plays yesterday as the league is winding down. NHL is right around the corner, so.. good?

Today we have a threesome. Not a good one, not even a little bit.

TOR 2x 1.1m
SD 2x 1.1m

Under in the NCAAF game 2x

Great.

Luckbox

2009-09-28T23:54:00.000-04:00

3-0 on the day, but some interesting stuff with the baseball games:

When I made the bets, Houston was getting 7% with 4400 bets on SI @ 276/-296. I projected that out to 11000 wagers, giving me a little over a million PVD. Toronto was at an 81/19 split on a -180/+172 game @ 6580 bets, so I bumped that to a projected total of 14k, yielding, again, a little over a million.

Houston ended with 11,666 bets, so at least that projection was right. However, it ended at 82/18 split with a line of 280/-310, yielding a total VD of 467k. Not good.

Toronto's 81/19 split was based on Beckett/Richmond. Beckett got scratched for Bowden. The new line was -207/+189 with a 65/35 split, which is nearly perfectly split action. I didn't notice the change, threw down 2x on Toronto, and here we are.

A completely legitimate 2-0 on beisbol.

After putting in the completed games with #bets and closing lines, I would have had no plays, with the closest being the Royals. Neat.

If I do this for hockey, kill me.

New Methodology + Today's Plays + Nobody Cares!

2009-09-28T17:35:00.000-04:00

1) No longer going to increase/decrease bet size based on bankroll. Started out with 30k Yen, so a unit is 300, with a max of 6 unit plays. Here is the chart of unit size - flat betting total (risk + win) - projected Vegas Differential required for a play

2 $1,200 $1,000,000
2.5 $1,500 $1,500,000
3 $1,800 $2,000,000
3.5 $2,100 $2,500,000
4 $2,400 $3,000,000
4.5 $2,700 $3,500,000
5 $3,000 $4,000,000
5.5 $3,300 $4,500,000
6 $3,600 $5,000,000

2) When I post plays, I'll hopefully get up a projected Vegas Differential. This will allow me to check my work the next day, after all the plays are in on Sports Insights, to see how accurate my projection was. Obviously, games on national TV or involving big name teams or players will garner more attention, so crazy splits are worth more money in those situations. This will not work for bets that I don't have PVDs for, such as Totals, Golf bets, or Carib Nonsense wagers.

Today:

Hou - 2x - $1.1m
Tor - 2x - $1m

Under 48 - 2x

My birthday is Wed, with a friend's rehearsal/wedding Thurs and Fri, then out to Chicago for an all day interview on Monday. We live in exciting, unemployed times.

NFL Recap

2009-09-28T12:54:00.000-04:00

Updated the sidebar for the first time in ten days. Two weekends of NFL betting will do that to you, just knock the life out of you, like so much square garbage.

Quick analysis of how insanely square the first few weeks have gone. Using Wagerline consensus numbers:

Week 1:
Minny -4 75%
NE -13 71%
Cincy -4.5 70%
SD -10 69%
NO -14 67%
Dallas -4.5 65%
Bal -13 63%
Philly -1 61%
Atl -4 60%

Wagerline Darlings: 6-3. Home: 3-2, Away: 3-1

Week 2:
Pitt -3 73%
Ten -7 71%
NO -2.5 70%
Indy -3 70%
Minny -10 66%
Buff -4 65%
NE -3.5 63%
Oak +1 62%
Bal +1 61%

Wagerline Darlings: 6-3. Home: 1-1, Away: 5-2

Week 3:
GB -6.5 74%
NYG -6 74%
Chi -1 73%
Hou -4 71%
NO -5.5 65%
Pitt -3.5 64%
Det +6.5 62%

Wagerline Darlings: 5-2. Home: 1-1, Away: 4-1

Through 3 weeks: 17-8, Home: 5-4, Away: 12-4

Disgusting. And if you look at the lines, it's obviously all favorites except for Oak +1, Bal +1, Det +6.5. So that means that only 1 time has a Wagerline team been the projected lesser team. Needless to say, I'll be sticking around as long as possible (until I piss all the money away). Adjustments have to be made, unless LVSC really thinks that this is all luck. Which it could be... Or you could just buy a mansion betting on the elite teams and fading Leftwich, Boller, and the rest of the grimy deep of the NFL.

91 Flipping Yen.

2009-09-20T09:56:00.000-04:00

My settled bets page ended up with 4 MLB plays and 16 NCAAF plays.

1-3 in MLB
9-7 in CFB, but two of those wins were 2 unit totals.

Risk: 23,530
Win: 00,091

Great.

Your Guide To Rushing Greatness

2009-09-19T00:43:00.002-04:00

From ML

"I tried to write a standard leans post yesterday, but it just wasn’t happening. This card is a total dog. If you wind up with 10 plays on Saturday then you are either seeing something I’m not or just flat out rushing greatness."

Game on, sir.

1) Minnesota +13.5 - 73/27 on SI, only 61/39 on Wagerline, but that seems to be typical of home dogs. Disgusting number of 13.5 at home vs. the #8 team in the country on your WWL. I'm in.
2) Temple +29.5 - HOOTIE HOO!!

3) Duke +24 - There's college football on Versus now.
4) Tulsa +18 - Ton of line movement, this one is debatable, can't imagine that the money won't keep pouring in on OK though. Double Negatives = Triple Profit!
5) Oregon -5 - The crying call of the day.

--At this point, I watched the rest of the Fresno game while conversing with Mr. Frank Stallone. Goddamnit they stink. Here are the rest.

6) Oregon State +1
7) Florida State +8
8) Utah State +19.5
9) Texas Tech +18
10) K-State +12

There might even be more. Who knows?

STOKELY AAAAAAAHHHH

2009-09-18T16:04:00.001-04:00

Fresno for a 4, obviously. ETA: TACK ON THE UNDER FOR 2 WHEE.

No WNBA plays today :(

Baseball is slow as hell, too, so:

Bal, Cin, Tex, SF, Sea... all 2 unit plays.

Thick Slicing probably seems to run its course in the last few weeks of the MLB season. Whate'er.

WNBA Attempt

2009-09-17T01:21:00.000-04:00

I use MS Paint like a crippled monkey. Still, both games had something like 16-0 runs against.

COME ON!

I made like 82 yen or some shit. Thanks, girls.

"Professional Basketball"

2009-09-16T17:25:00.000-04:00

MLB is slowing down, so now it's onto the WNBA, where every favorite gets 70% of the action. There's not a lot of money here, so they'll all be 1.5x plays.

WNBA:
ATL +3.5
SEA +5.5

MLB:
Tor 1.5
KC 1.5
Bal 2
Cin 2
Oak 1.5

Should have been my initial post

2009-09-15T20:34:00.000-04:00

Proof That I Do Not Lie in My Sidebar

2009-09-15T16:52:00.000-04:00

The NFL kicked us in the balls, with our only cover being Denver. Then we fly back to Jersey yesterday and skip all the action, with both passes promptly covering easily. It happens. Made the NFL plays 6 units because of the huge amount of action, I learned my lesson.

Had the same 7 picks as ML, but of course his order > my order, so now I'm near the bottom. But there are 13 weeks left so maybe thickly slicing this shit will work out, probably not.

Back to the grind, as @am19psu says

KC 2
Bal 2.5
Tor 2
Was 1.5
Cin 2.5
Mil 2
Cle 1.5
Pit 2
O KC/Det 1.5

Let the shitshow begin anew!

Hungover.

2009-09-12T10:41:00.002-04:00

Gonna be at the sportsbook. Need to force myself not to do anything stupid while I'm there, since my matchbook account will be filled with enough goddamn idiocy.

HEEEEEEEEEEERE WE GO

All 4's:

UConn
Troy
Marshall
UVA
Tulane
Wyoming
LATECH
UCLA
IDAHO
HOUSTON
BGSU
UTEP
The Ohio State University Buckeyes Pompous Cunts
SJSU
UNM

There will also be mlb plays. I hope the sportsbook has wifi.

Hi Bellagio

2009-09-10T15:06:00.000-04:00

I'm currently occupying a one bedroom penthouse suite.

MLB Plays:

KC, SEA, NYM, WAS

Whatever.

Clemson's a 4 tonight. That'll be fun.

Degen Picks:

Here's what the computer/my idiotic thick slicing spits out, like bad prosciutto from an "Italian Deli" in Bethlehem, PA.

1    Marshall    $4,920,000     A
2    Tulane         $4,568,571     H
3    Ohio State    $4,490,476     H
4    Troy         $4,217,143     A
5    Louisiana Tech    $3,514,286     A
6    Wyoming         $3,280,000     H
7    Connecticut    $3,162,857     H
8    Eastern Michigan $2,967,619     A
9    Michigan    $2,967,619     H
10    Houston U    $2,928,571     A
11    Toledo         $2,811,429     H
12    Bowling Green    $2,733,333     A
13    Clemson         $2,655,238     A
14    South Carolina    $2,538,095     A
15    Florida Intl    $2,499,048     A

Marshall and Tulane are fine, I'm throwing out OSU due to odd Wagerline numbers and general uneasiness. Troy is in. La Tech is out because fading Navy is stupid. ML did some research on other consensus data, and when your fade list is mostly elite teams, a LATECH/Navy game just doesn't scream "book taking a stand for big bucks" to me. UConn getting 4.5 at home vs a ranked team = whee. I can't imagine EMU/NW having a shitton of money on it, I don't see an 88/12 split holding up, especially in light of the wagerline numbers. Michigan/UND should be more of split money than SI is showing. Houston and Toledo back into the last two spots.

7) Marshall
6) Tulane
5) Troy
4) Wyoming
3) UConn
2) Houston
1) Toledo

Just about to post this, and holy shit they're the exact same as MLs, but in a slightly different order. Welp, gotta post it anyway. Sorry dude.

Your Daily Dose of Cleveland-Based Losers

2009-09-09T10:54:00.000-04:00

After the Indians get swept at home by the Rangers, I can't wait to take the Browns getting 4 vs the Vikings. Come on.

Cle 2.5
Pit 2.5
Mil 2
SDG 2
MIN 2
WAS 2
BAL 1.5
KC 2.5
OAK 2.5
SEA 2
Over Mets 1.5

ANNNNND That's More Like It

2009-09-09T09:42:00.000-04:00

3-12 -18.3%

Flip it, the whole post is gonna be in "loser red". It seems like I only have two distinct feelings when I'm gambling.. Sometimes, it's like every game is gonna be a winner and if we lose a few, whatever, but *most* of the time, it's holyshitholyshitholyshit I need to win at least ONE of these SIX games. Where you just assume that you're going to lose most of them and you have to back into a still highly unprofitable day.

Leaving for Vegas at 6pm EST. Gotta do Degen Cup, MLB picks today and then I should be posting regularly while I'm staying in the penthouse at the Bellagio. Unemployment kicks ass.

MLB Should End Poorly

2009-09-08T15:21:00.001-04:00

Unit sizes are over 40% higher than they were on 9/1. I adjust it daily, so after I lose a flipton of yen, I can go back to betting comfortably.

CLE 2.5
WAS 2.5
PIT 2
BAL 2.5
Mets 2
HOU 2
MIL 2
CLE (redux) 2
KC 2.5
OAK 2
CIN 1.5
SEA 1.5
SDG 1.5
O OAK 2
O LAD 2

Lakehouses Suck Balls + Updated Record

2009-09-07T21:56:00.000-04:00

I was able to find wi-fi on Saturday, but then that shut down on Sunday. Bets were made using PDANet on the iPhone, but it wouldn't let me connect to any https... so no updates.

Now I'm back, heading to Vegas on Wednesday, but at least I can purchase wifi at the Bellagio penthouse suite, although for what we're paying they should give it for free and also give us a free asian woman for usage, I don't know, I'm not funny.

Week 1 of the new FY ended up as good as I could have hoped for, with positive results in MLB, NCAAF and Gof without the L. Record will be updated momentarily, just need to find a way to block this flat girl from Georgia from my TV. Hopefully this will be the last time I'm ever this far away from society that I can't connect to secure servers.

Another week, will be, of course, mostly beisbol. Can't wait.

Lakehouse Saturday Afternoon

2009-09-05T11:39:00.000-04:00

Lots of geese, also cherry vodka should be the focus of a booze-themed Moneyball book. Criminally underrated. Three Olives Cherry + Coke Zero = Girls asking if you put any vodka in it because like, they can't like, taste it.

This should hold my addiction over until 7pm EST:

MLB:

Tor 2.5
CWS 2.5
Mil 2
Bal 2
Cle 2.5

CFB/NCAAF/NCF/FBS

Syracuse 4
Miami Ohio 3
Navy 2.5
Akron 4
Mizzou 4
Wash St. 4

Whee. Eeked out a small profit even in the face of a quite expected green wave defeat. Fine.

Friday Night (Something that rhymes with lights but displays uneasiness about these plays)

2009-09-04T14:54:00.001-04:00

Frights? Blights?

(4)

MLB:

CLE 2
BAL 2.5
WAS 2.5
CIN 1.5
HOU 2.5
MIL 2.5
KC 2
CWS 2
SEA 2
SDG 1.5

My worthless system gives a small 0.5 unit bump to a home team, which I'll look into at the end of the year. This means that this weekend is going to suck, with the following series playing out:

MIN @ CLE
TEX @ BAL
NYY @ TOR
STL @ PIT
FLA @ WAS
CHC @ NYM
PHI @ HOU
SFO @ MIL
LAA @ KC
BOS @ CWS

That's 10 of 16 series where the home team is decidedly worse. A few of the other series include the "huge away dog close your eyes and press the button" types like SDG @ LAD and CIN @ ATL.

All this plus the first weekend of college football, all while I'm in the boonies of NW NJ. Ship me a gun, plz.

Yesterday/Golf/Weekend

2009-09-04T14:01:00.000-04:00

I really love carrot juice, I just think it might be one of those things that you need to drink by itself, because it doesn't go with any non-health food whatsoever.

This weekend I'm going to a "lake house". I assume this means no internet but I'll have the iphone tethering going, because bets need to be made. I am not above going to the local library to hit up matchbook. Not even close.

Yesterday was a good day:

NCAA Football: 2-0, +1,775
MLB Baseball: 3-4, +268

For golf, I tried to match some stuff that ML and REXFORDALLCAPS put in, the results are not good:

Tourney Matchups:
OHair over Haas -109 (2)
Mickelson over Els +128 (2)
Kim over Goosen +109 (2)
Marino over Yang -115 (1.5)

1st Round Matchups:
Johnson over Yang +107 (1/20th)
Leonard over Moore -115 (2/5th)

Outright:
Kim (Risking 1/2)
Marino (Risking 1/2)

Yes, I have 15Y on Johnson.

Also have 1Y on VW in the Carib Stupidity @ +180. -EV.

9/3 Plays

2009-09-03T18:13:00.001-04:00

MLB:

Tor 2
FLA 2.5
SEA 1.5
ARI 2
SF/PHI O 1.5

NCAAF:

Utah St. +21 2.5
Bowling Green +7 3

Week 1 Degen Cup Selections/Methodology

2009-09-03T17:15:00.001-04:00

Rules:

- Contest is a NCAAF Pick 7 contest. Contestants will rank selections from 1-7 with 1 point awarded for a correct #1 selection, 5 pts for a #5 selection, etc, etc. Losses and pushes are worth zero.

Process:

Using SportsInsights, I calculate the current win/loss differential for Vegas based on the lines and the number of bets. For example:

Tulane vs. Tulsa:
Split: 85% Tulsa -106, 15% Tulane -104

I use the current line since I'm using the (stupid) assumption that most of the action the books take will be at or around that line. If there's huge movement or I have information as to a possible suspension/weather/act of "god", I can make adjustments as necessary, although I probably would just skip the game altogether.

As of my last SportsInsights download, there were 9480 bets on the game, so based on the %'s, and assuming an average wager of $100 (just to keep everything easy for me), there was $805k wagered on Tulsa and $142.2k on Tulane.

The books' position on this game is pretty one-sided, obviously. If Tulsa covers, they pay out $760k, and get to keep the $142.2k wagered on Tulane, resulting in a $618k loss for the book. However, if Tulsa doesn't cover, they only pay out $136k while keeping the $805k, a $669k profit.

The sums of the absolute values of those numbers (669k + 618k) is the VD (harf harf) or Vegas Differential, a number which I hope has some meaning, but I'm definitely not 100% on board with it yet. If game A has a higher VD than game B, in theory Vegas has a higher stake in game A. This helps me determine my daily plays going forward because I can now differentiate between two games which are both 70/30 splits @ -110/-110 and if one has 20,000 wagers on SI and the other 2,000, the latter is probably not even a play, even with a seemingly stark split.

The last thing I need to do, which is pretty much just for the contest, is attempt to predict how many wagers will be placed on the game. Since the early numbers are pretty substantial (over 5,000 wagers for most of the big Saturday games), I'm hoping that they're credible enough to use as a baseline for projecting out the rest of the action. So I normalized each game to have 10,000 wagers of $100 each, then applied a "popularity factor" of 1 to 5 for how many wagers will eventually be placed on the game. If I didn't do that, all of my selections would be on Thursday and Friday. Not good or valid. This is the part that's very arbitrary, which is why I'm only doing it for the contest, not for differentiating levels of plays. Some examples of my factor selections:

SC/NC St = 3. Nationally televised, first game of the season and all that, but no real quality or name brand recognition.
Tulsa/Tulane = 4. The "I'm going to a bar tonight to watch the game before I fail at attracting the opposite sex" game. Only game, ESPN, and all that. If a real team was involved, this would easily be a 5.
GA/OSU = 5. ABC Saturday night game between two elite programs. Doesn't get much bigger than that.
Rice/UAB = 1. Yeah.

And I'll attempt to match up my numbers with the wager totals after the fact, and make some assumption adjustments when everything goes to hell.

So, based on the numbers, here are the top 10 candidates:

1. Tulane $5.4m
2. Wash $4.3m
3. Memphis $4.3m
4. Akron $4.1m
5. Monroe $3.6m
6. BYU $3.5m
7. FAU $3.2m
8. Miami Joehio $2.7m
9. Syracuse $2.7m
10. Nevada $2.3m

I don't see anything wrong with the first 7 plays, so away we go:

7) Tulame
6) Washington
5) Memphis
4) Akron
3) Monroe
2) BYU
1) FAU

9/3 Afternoon Delights

2009-09-03T08:15:00.001-04:00

Throwing these out there. They're both 2 unit plays due to fairly sizable splits. There's some time before the games start, but if something changes, I change it here.

Debating signing up for the Degen Cup, 80/20 yes as of now.

Yesterday was 3-0 for +1,491¥, so now stuff is all green and whatnot. That will certainly not last.

CLE (2) +127
METS(2) +222

Getting a bunch of golf plays in, all follows off of MoneyLine because it would be really cool to win 15,000¥ for some azn winning a golf tourney. Will post them when filled.

Night Baseball and Thanks

2009-09-02T16:27:00.002-04:00

Bless you, Joe Nathan.

Two crappy home faves. Not pleased with it, but whatever.

Seattle (2)-119
Tampa (2)-115

Day 1 MLB Review - Day 2 MLB Day Game

2009-09-02T11:56:00.005-04:00

Day 1 3-5 -37¥

Whatever, that's why they invented flat betting. Also, I remembered that Matchbook doesn't store your odds after bets close, which is cool.

Thankfully, only one play during the day. ChiSox (1.5x) -136, you're up.

Unit size will remain at 300¥ even though I'm currently deeply, deeply in the red.

Day 1 MLB

2009-09-01T16:47:00.001-04:00

Pretty much the plan of attack is to throw these up on Matchbook and then follow up 5 min prior to gametime to fill anything that wasn't filled already.

I won't put lines or do color coding until after the games are over. If you really think I'd try to misrepresent anything, you're giving yourself too much credit.

NYY U 1.5
CLE 2
HOU 1.5
PIT 2
MIN 2
MIL 1.5
KC 1.5
SEA 2.5

I don't know who's pitching, I don't even want to look. Just fill these so I can go play Madden. Let's make some Yen. Where's the covers beer clang emoticon??

Fiscal Year Plan

2009-09-01T15:06:00.000-04:00

See am19psu's post regarding this, pretty much doing the same thing.

I will start the year with ¥30,000. That's code, you see. From there, I'll be risking anywhere from 1.5% to 2.5% on most plays, going up to 4% for "big games."

My philosophy is simple, following other guys whose blogs you see on the sidebar... The biggest lie about sports gambling, imho, is that Vegas desires equal action on all games. I have used sites like Covers, but more importantly Sports Insights (please have valid data, please have valid data...) to determine what sides Vegas stands to win money on, then I take Vegas's side. Adjustments are made for things like line movement, late breaking news/injuries, but the basic premise remains the same. This is designed for long term growth. That's not what she said.

Games will be flat bet, and I probably can't be assed to post everything on a forum because this is more for me than for you, and once I actually get a job I won't have the time anyway, so I don't want to set a precedent.